Will Democrats win fewer than 7 of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $386 held · ended Nov 4

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$386.48

Combined PnL

$55.86

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 95.3¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$382.71

Total Shares386

Combined PnL+$87.53

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.77

Total Shares125

Combined PnL-$31.67

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

340h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 72¢	$228.78	$315.14	+$84.2	— 9-6 (15)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$29.45	$29.75	+$0.3	41% 6791-9646 (16437)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$29.48	$27.8	+$0.82	73% 13591-5101 (18692)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.58	$10.02	+$2.2	61% 218-138 (356)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$7.64	$2.26	-$6.51	27% 6766-18641 (25407)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$38	$0.6	-$17.81	26% 353-995 (1348)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$4.4	$0.6	-$4.21	43% 2149-2803 (4952)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yes	$0.3	$0.3	-$3.13	24% 708-2191 (2899)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$228.78

Value

$315.14

PnL

+$84.2

Record

—

9-6 (15)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.45

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$0.3

Record

41%

6791-9646 (16437)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$29.48

Value

$27.8

PnL

+$0.82

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836<$100

Invested

$7.58

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$2.2

Record

61%

218-138 (356)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.64

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$6.51

Record

27%

6766-18641 (25407)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$17.81

Record

26%

353-995 (1348)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.4

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$4.21

Record

43%

2149-2803 (4952)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$3.13

Record

24%

708-2191 (2899)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

340h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.