Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$940.61

Smart Money Entry

25.9¢ → 59.1¢

+128% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,390

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No3 traders

Total Value$261

Total Shares571

Combined PnL-$152.87

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Yesavg 25¢	$583.37	$1.7K	+$1.1K	52% 30859-28946 (59805)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Noavg 71.6¢	$427.84	$198.16	-$116.45	45% 2965-3664 (6629)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 46.3¢	$54.35	$85.63	+$31.28	26% 7302-21086 (28388)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$55.62	$59.37	+$2.42	53% 8553-7624 (16177)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.3¢	$3.63	$36.48	+$31.08
└ No leg	Noavg 88.5¢	$44.32	$22.89	-$28.65
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$48.77	$50.67	-$28.83	48% 1352-1491 (2843)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$1.17	$16.05	+$11.55	28% 2773-7209 (9982)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$59.98	$12.17	-$7.59	50% 292-287 (579)

balthazar

Yes

Invested

$583.37

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

30859-28946 (59805)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Invested

$427.84

Value

$198.16

PnL

-$116.45

Record

45%

2965-3664 (6629)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.35

Value

$85.63

PnL

+$31.28

Record

26%

7302-21086 (28388)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Invested

$55.62

Value

$59.37

PnL

+$2.42

Record

53%

8553-7624 (16177)

Both legs:

Yes$3.637.3¢+$31.08

No$44.3288.5¢-$28.65

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Invested

$48.77

Value

$50.67

PnL

-$28.83

Record

48%

1352-1491 (2843)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$16.05

PnL

+$11.55

Record

28%

2773-7209 (9982)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$59.98

Value

$12.17

PnL

-$7.59

Record

50%

292-287 (579)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.0%

59.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.