Will Democrats win exactly 47 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 96¢ · $286 held · ended Nov 4

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$286.33

Combined PnL

-$106.97

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 95.9¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$275.77

Total Shares288

Combined PnL+$48.81

Yes4 traders

Total Value$10.56

Total Shares977

Combined PnL-$155.78

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SitsToPee	Noavg 85¢	$170	$191.6	+$29.2	53% 790-692 (1482)
SI singularityman<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$34.37	$45.85	+$13.69	43% 159-209 (368)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 81¢	$32.4	$38.32	+$5.92	46% 9374-11127 (20501)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$32.63	$9.68	-$22.95	17% 4487-21970 (26457)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 18.4¢	$127.01	$0.84	-$126.17	48% 1350-1485 (2835)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$6.72	$0.02	-$6.62	40% 6508-9755 (16263)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.04	38% 2369-3813 (6182)

SitsToPee

Invested

$170

Value

$191.6

PnL

+$29.2

Record

53%

790-692 (1482)

singularityman<$100

Invested

$34.37

Value

$45.85

PnL

+$13.69

Record

43%

159-209 (368)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$32.4

Value

$38.32

PnL

+$5.92

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.63

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$22.95

Record

17%

4487-21970 (26457)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.01

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$126.17

Record

48%

1350-1485 (2835)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.72

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.62

Record

40%

6508-9755 (16263)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

2369-3813 (6182)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.