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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Democrats win exactly 43 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections?
Resolved No. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
19
Yes 74%
Total Value
$120
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Yes
14 of 19 top traders (74%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4a30e54d...621b65
Slug
will-democrats-win-exactly-43-house-seats-in-california-in-the-2026-midterm-elections-20260811010741876