Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 21¢ · $46 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$46.2
$8.6
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $34 | $42 | +$8 | 46% 1623-1895 (3518) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $3.6 | $4.2 | +$0.6 | — 2-3 (5) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.