Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$3.0K
-$370.68
66.3¢ → 70.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123 | Yesavg 67¢ | $3.2K | $2.8K | -$382.05 | 47% 473-533 (1006) |
 FrozenParasite<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $11.2 | $95.05 | +$12.22 | 55% 460-371 (831) |
AB ABC12345654321<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $65.39 | $65.39 | +$0 | 50% 1657-1652 (3309) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $50.85 | $50 | -$0.85 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
Invested
$3,206.57
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$382.05
Record
47%
473-533 (1006)
FrozenParasite<$100Invested
$11.2
Value
$95.05
PnL
+$12.22
Record
55%
460-371 (831)
Invested
$65.39
Value
$65.39
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1657-1652 (3309)
Invested
$50.85
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.85
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.