Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$75.47

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 61.5¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$945.01

Total Shares1,537

Combined PnL-$70.88

No1 trader

Total Value$200.6

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$4.59

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FrozenParasite	Yes	$338.92	$338.92	-$10.59	53% 356-310 (666)
Chungvicular	Yesavg 70¢	$266.76	$310.62	-$42.93	47% 49-56 (105)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 66.2¢	$311.43	$289.31	-$17.41	51% 1526-1494 (3020)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Noavg 38.2¢	$183.62	$200.6	-$4.59	50% 107-107 (214)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$6.1	$6.15	+$0.05	—

FrozenParasite

Yes

Invested

$338.92

Value

$338.92

PnL

-$10.59

Record

53%

356-310 (666)

Chungvicular

Yes

Invested

$266.76

Value

$310.62

PnL

-$42.93

Record

47%

49-56 (105)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$311.43

Value

$289.31

PnL

-$17.41

Record

51%

1526-1494 (3020)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$183.62

Value

$200.6

PnL

-$4.59

Record

50%

107-107 (214)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.4%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.