Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 75¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$131.94

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 74.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,787

Combined PnL+$104.52

No2 traders

Total Value$187.37

Total Shares635

Combined PnL+$27.43

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 67.1¢	$596.5	$660.32	+$63.82	51% 1526-1494 (3020)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 72¢	$489.93	$507.01	+$17.01	73% 101-37 (138)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Noavg 25.3¢	$151.05	$175.96	+$24.91	54% 1825-1526 (3351)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Yesavg 70.2¢	$76.87	$81.6	+$4.74	— 2-5 (7)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$22	$42.3	+$18.95	18% 3382-15511 (18893)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$8.9	$11.41	+$2.51	50% 108-110 (218)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$596.5

Value

$660.32

PnL

+$63.82

Record

51%

1526-1494 (3020)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$489.93

Value

$507.01

PnL

+$17.01

Record

73%

101-37 (138)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Invested

$151.05

Value

$175.96

PnL

+$24.91

Record

54%

1825-1526 (3351)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.87

Value

$81.6

PnL

+$4.74

Record

—

2-5 (7)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$42.3

PnL

+$18.95

Record

18%

3382-15511 (18893)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$11.41

PnL

+$2.51

Record

50%

108-110 (218)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.2%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.