Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Deiveson Figueiredo be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$2.63

Combined PnL

-$73.64

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.92

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.48

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.7

Total Shares1,410

Combined PnL-$74.12

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4844h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DumplingBMF<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$1.44	$1.92	+$0.48	68% 1836-852 (2688)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$30.18	$0.41	-$43.13	63% 12940-7724 (20664)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$20.64	$0.2	-$20.44	79% 10607-2754 (13361)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$6.05	$0.06	-$6	55% 5874-4767 (10641)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$15.94	$0.02	-$2.64	55% 6024-5008 (11032)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$1.3	$0.01	-$1.29	35% 104-196 (300)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.63	$0.01	-$0.63	42% 1897-2620 (4517)

DumplingBMF<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.92

PnL

+$0.48

Record

68%

1836-852 (2688)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.18

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$43.13

Record

63%

12940-7724 (20664)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.64

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$20.44

Record

79%

10607-2754 (13361)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.05

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$6

Record

55%

5874-4767 (10641)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.94

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.64

Record

55%

6024-5008 (11032)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.29

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.63

Record

42%

1897-2620 (4517)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4844h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.