Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$5.93

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,546

Combined PnL+$5.93

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

188h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.1¢	$581.32	$582.87	+$1.55	51% 4631-4518 (9149)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.3¢	$219.02	$219.24	+$0.22	29% 881-2138 (3019)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99¢	$188.1	$188.77	+$0.67	30% 2678-6206 (8884)
GO god83743894	Noavg 98.7¢	$173.83	$175.02	+$1.2	16% 63-330 (393)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$85.03	$85.44	+$0.41	15% 65-373 (438)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$53.56	$54.08	+$0.52	53% 5633-5071 (10704)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$50.5	$50.94	+$0.44	28% 522-1370 (1892)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$50.5	$50.94	+$0.44	27% 499-1317 (1816)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$47.08	$47.49	+$0.41	28% 521-1360 (1881)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$22.93	$22.92	-$0.01	50% 85-84 (169)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$20.18	$20.17	-$0.01	46% 338-392 (730)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$15.16	$15.15	-$0.01	41% 680-977 (1657)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$12.83	$12.92	+$0.09	39% 1281-2002 (3283)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$5.09	$5.14	+$0.04	42% 372-507 (879)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.03	$5.03	-$0	48% 327-353 (680)

balthazar

Invested

$581.32

Value

$582.87

PnL

+$1.55

Record

51%

4631-4518 (9149)

mildwindow27

Invested

$219.02

Value

$219.24

PnL

+$0.22

Record

29%

881-2138 (3019)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$188.1

Value

$188.77

PnL

+$0.67

Record

30%

2678-6206 (8884)

god83743894

Invested

$173.83

Value

$175.02

PnL

+$1.2

Record

16%

63-330 (393)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$85.03

Value

$85.44

PnL

+$0.41

Record

15%

65-373 (438)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$53.56

Value

$54.08

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

5633-5071 (10704)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$50.5

Value

$50.94

PnL

+$0.44

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$50.5

Value

$50.94

PnL

+$0.44

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

akroll<$100

Invested

$47.08

Value

$47.49

PnL

+$0.41

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$22.93

Value

$22.92

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

85-84 (169)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$20.18

Value

$20.17

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

338-392 (730)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.16

Value

$15.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

41%

680-977 (1657)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$12.83

Value

$12.92

PnL

+$0.09

Record

39%

1281-2002 (3283)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

372-507 (879)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

327-353 (680)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

188h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.