Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$0.23
-$8.55
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $1.39 | $0.08 | -$1.31 | 40% 1470-2192 (3662) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $3.95 | $0.07 | -$3.88 | 47% 4795-5410 (10205) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $1.86 | $0.03 | -$1.83 | 44% 1109-1422 (2531) |
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.29 | $0.03 | -$0.26 | — 0-2 (2) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $0.86 | $0.02 | -$0.84 | 12% 6-43 (49) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $0.29 | $0.01 | -$0.28 | 2% 1-59 (60) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $0.15 | $0 | -$0.15 | 4% 3-68 (71) |
Invested
$1.39
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$1.31
Record
40%
1470-2192 (3662)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$3.95
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$3.88
Record
47%
4795-5410 (10205)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.83
Record
44%
1109-1422 (2531)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.26
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$0.86
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.84
Record
12%
6-43 (49)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.28
Record
2%
1-59 (60)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.15
Record
4%
3-68 (71)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.