Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $207 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$206.92
-$6.12
99.2¢ → 96.3¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $123.9 | $120.38 | -$3.53 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $39.6 | $38.52 | -$1.08 | 49% 87-90 (177) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $39.6 | $38.39 | -$1.21 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $9.93 | $9.63 | -$0.3 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
Invested
$123.9
Value
$120.38
PnL
-$3.53
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$39.6
Value
$38.52
PnL
-$1.08
Record
49%
87-90 (177)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.6
Value
$38.39
PnL
-$1.21
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$9.93
Value
$9.63
PnL
-$0.3
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.