Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 17 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will David Seymour be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

17 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.65

Combined PnL

-$130.33

Smart Money Entry

4.9¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$2.65

Total Shares5,303

Combined PnL-$130.33

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$28.08	$1.05	-$27.04	31% 3243-7118 (10361)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 5.8¢	$1.5K	$0.52	-$59.3	72% 13809-5348 (19157)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$2.62	$0.28	-$2.35	38% 7141-11766 (18907)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.47	$0.24	-$13.65	38% 306-492 (798)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.29	$0.07	-$4.02	41% 816-1170 (1986)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.27	$0.06	-$3.27	37% 4013-6774 (10787)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$3.32	$0.06	-$3.27	29% 443-1103 (1546)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$1.58	$0.06	-$1.52	30% 481-1137 (1618)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$2.34	$0.06	-$3.27	30% 489-1151 (1640)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$2.37	$0.06	-$3.27	29% 473-1160 (1633)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$2.07	$0.04	-$2.03	35% 574-1074 (1648)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$2.07	$0.04	-$2.03	29% 346-843 (1189)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$2.02	26% 562-1641 (2203)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.13	$0.03	-$0.09	58% 21213-15412 (36625)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.85	$0.03	-$1.82	29% 328-805 (1133)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	+$0	18% 245-1134 (1379)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.41	$0.02	-$1.39	20% 342-1337 (1679)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$28.08

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$27.04

Record

31%

3243-7118 (10361)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,464.43

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$59.3

Record

72%

13809-5348 (19157)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.62

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$2.35

Record

38%

7141-11766 (18907)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$13.65

Record

38%

306-492 (798)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$4.02

Record

41%

816-1170 (1986)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.27

Record

37%

4013-6774 (10787)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.27

Record

29%

443-1103 (1546)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.58

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.52

Record

30%

481-1137 (1618)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.27

Record

30%

489-1151 (1640)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.27

Record

29%

473-1160 (1633)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.03

Record

35%

574-1074 (1648)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.03

Record

29%

346-843 (1189)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.02

Record

26%

562-1641 (2203)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.09

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.82

Record

29%

328-805 (1133)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

245-1134 (1379)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.39

Record

20%

342-1337 (1679)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.