Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will David Martinez be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.57

Combined PnL

-$58.64

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$0.57

Total Shares1,140

Combined PnL-$58.64

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

175h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$12	$0.35	-$36.01	49% 24130-24681 (48811)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$8.42	$0.08	-$8.34	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$5.28	$0.05	-$5.23	38% 2901-4738 (7639)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$2.75	$0.03	-$2.72	22% 3495-12142 (15637)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$1.56	26% 6-17 (23)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$1.21	$0.01	-$1.2	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$1.29	22% 657-2370 (3027)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$1.1	$0.01	-$1.09	45% 7293-8812 (16105)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.63	$0.01	-$0.63	30% 2897-6613 (9510)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$0.56	$0.01	-$0.56	55% 42191-34106 (76297)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.07	$0.01	+$0.01	36% 9048-16196 (25244)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$36.01

Record

49%

24130-24681 (48811)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.42

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$8.34

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.28

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$5.23

Record

38%

2901-4738 (7639)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.72

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.56

Record

26%

6-17 (23)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.21

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.29

Record

22%

657-2370 (3027)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.09

Record

45%

7293-8812 (16105)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.63

Record

30%

2897-6613 (9510)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.56

Record

55%

42191-34106 (76297)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

9048-16196 (25244)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

175h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.