Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Dave Roberts win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 19
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$0.17
-$10.14
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
97h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $4.21 | $0.09 | -$3.89 | 39% 2908-4509 (7417) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.04 | $0.03 | -$3.16 | 17% 396-1983 (2379) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $1.53 | $0.02 | -$1.51 | 49% 6588-6939 (13527) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0.38 | $0.02 | -$0.34 | 48% 1991-2135 (4126) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$1.24 | 37% 4060-6783 (10843) |
Invested
$4.21
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$3.89
Record
39%
2908-4509 (7417)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$3.16
Record
17%
396-1983 (2379)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.51
Record
49%
6588-6939 (13527)
Invested
$0.38
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.34
Record
48%
1991-2135 (4126)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.24
Record
37%
4060-6783 (10843)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.