Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Daniel Hadad win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $12 held · ends Oct 24, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 24, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$12.34

Combined PnL

-$4.95

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$10.34

Total Shares1,022

Combined PnL-$4.98

No1 trader

Total Value$2.01

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.9	$2.7	-$0.19	36% 1985-3555 (5540)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$1.98	$2.01	+$0.03	38% 3027-4906 (7933)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yes	$1.8	$1.8	-$0.49	42% 3635-5039 (8674)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$3.06	$1.76	-$1.3	40% 2052-3074 (5126)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.61	$1.51	-$1.11	43% 2142-2793 (4935)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.87	$1.08	-$0.8	40% 121-184 (305)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.38	$0.79	-$0.58	48% 102-110 (212)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.2	$0.69	-$0.51	6% 14-231 (245)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.19

Record

36%

1985-3555 (5540)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.03

Record

38%

3027-4906 (7933)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.49

Record

42%

3635-5039 (8674)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$1.3

Record

40%

2052-3074 (5126)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.61

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$1.11

Record

43%

2142-2793 (4935)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.87

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.8

Record

40%

121-184 (305)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$0.58

Record

48%

102-110 (212)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.51

Record

14-231 (245)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4964.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

5064.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.