Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 3%-6%?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $195 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$194.7
$0.08
99.8¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $74.85 | $74.93 | +$0.08 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.89 | $39.93 | +$0.04 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.97 | +$0.03 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.91 | -$0.07 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
Invested
$74.85
Value
$74.93
PnL
+$0.08
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.89
Value
$39.93
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.91
PnL
-$0.07
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.