Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $358 held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$358.03
-$17.55
93.6¢ → 96.4¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Late
4229h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME MenacingTurtle<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $92.86 | $82.65 | -$2.44 | 58% 296-215 (511) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $78.65 | $67.3 | -$21.85 | 48% 1967-2120 (4087) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 94.2¢ | $105.5 | $58.48 | +$1.52 | 58% 21212-15411 (36623) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $67.81 | $53.95 | +$4.32 | 51% 2576-2507 (5083) |
CR cry.eth2<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $33.67 | $27.8 | +$23.3 | 39% 10144-15757 (25901) |
AN ancianoCTR<$100 | Yes | $21.46 | $21.46 | -$10.3 | 54% 1458-1225 (2683) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | $14.44 | $14.44 | -$5.77 | — 4-0 (4) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $20.5 | $13.8 | -$6.7 | 55% 3176-2634 (5810) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $12.17 | $12.26 | +$0.09 | 77% 12685-3871 (16556) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $42.07 | $5.9 | +$0.27 | 29% 2940-7182 (10122) |
Invested
$92.86
Value
$82.65
PnL
-$2.44
Record
58%
296-215 (511)
Invested
$78.65
Value
$67.3
PnL
-$21.85
Record
48%
1967-2120 (4087)
Invested
$105.5
Value
$58.48
PnL
+$1.52
Record
58%
21212-15411 (36623)
Invested
$67.81
Value
$53.95
PnL
+$4.32
Record
51%
2576-2507 (5083)
Invested
$33.67
Value
$27.8
PnL
+$23.3
Record
39%
10144-15757 (25901)
Invested
$21.46
Value
$21.46
PnL
-$10.3
Record
54%
1458-1225 (2683)
Invested
$14.44
Value
$14.44
PnL
-$5.77
Record
—
4-0 (4)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$20.5
Value
$13.8
PnL
-$6.7
Record
55%
3176-2634 (5810)
Invested
$12.17
Value
$12.26
PnL
+$0.09
Record
77%
12685-3871 (16556)
Invested
$42.07
Value
$5.9
PnL
+$0.27
Record
29%
2940-7182 (10122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.