Will D be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 50¢ · $412 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$411.91
$385.34
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 43%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $6.06 | $93.9 | +$87.84 | 29% 917-2195 (3112) |
KO korda77<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $5.48 | $85 | +$79.52 | 36% 70-127 (197) |
 balthazar<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $5.29 | $82.05 | +$76.75 | 46% 4876-5704 (10580) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $3.23 | $50 | +$46.77 | 30% 2991-7120 (10111) |
ME merod<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $2.61 | $40.5 | +$37.89 | 31% 77-171 (248) |
VE VerilyWinningly<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $1.97 | $30.47 | +$28.5 | 26% 378-1084 (1462) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $0.97 | $15 | +$14.03 | 40% 1500-2235 (3735) |
GI GingerMcKenna<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $0.97 | $15 | +$14.03 | 19% 5-21 (26) |
Invested
$6.06
Value
$93.9
PnL
+$87.84
Record
29%
917-2195 (3112)
Invested
$5.48
Value
$85
PnL
+$79.52
Record
36%
70-127 (197)
balthazar<$100Invested
$5.29
Value
$82.05
PnL
+$76.75
Record
46%
4876-5704 (10580)
Invested
$3.23
Value
$50
PnL
+$46.77
Record
30%
2991-7120 (10111)
Invested
$2.61
Value
$40.5
PnL
+$37.89
Record
31%
77-171 (248)
Invested
$1.97
Value
$30.47
PnL
+$28.5
Record
26%
378-1084 (1462)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$15
PnL
+$14.03
Record
40%
1500-2235 (3735)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$15
PnL
+$14.03
Record
19%
5-21 (26)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.