Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Croatia win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jun 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jun 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.22

Combined PnL

-$125.23

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.22

Total Shares2,442

Combined PnL-$125.23

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

125h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$39.88	$0.54	-$58.18	43% 8854-11539 (20393)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$19.27	$0.35	-$36.36	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.26	$0.15	-$16.07	35% 1845-3417 (5262)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$4.17	$0.08	-$4.09	28% 589-1509 (2098)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.04	-$4.34	53% 12757-11432 (24189)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$4.18	49% 6610-6994 (13604)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.49	$0.01	-$1.48	32% 3312-7188 (10500)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.06	$0.01	-$0.52	39% 5812-9185 (14997)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0	-$0.01	17% 4528-22232 (26760)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.88

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$58.18

Record

43%

8854-11539 (20393)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.27

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$36.36

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

PiEDawgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$16.07

Record

35%

1845-3417 (5262)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$4.09

Record

28%

589-1509 (2098)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.34

Record

53%

12757-11432 (24189)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.18

Record

49%

6610-6994 (13604)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.48

Record

32%

3312-7188 (10500)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

39%

5812-9185 (14997)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

-$0.01

Record

17%

4528-22232 (26760)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

125h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.