Will Cristiano Ronaldo attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$4.8K
$81.04
96.3¢ → 96.7¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
206h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 96.6¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$39.81 | 72% 3455-1322 (4777) |
MP mpstire-lutuwar | Noavg 95.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$34.31 | 86% 144-24 (168) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $383.57 | $380.16 | +$1.36 | 89% 4398-538 (4936) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 91¢ | $153.72 | $164.66 | +$9.97 | 53% 1040-935 (1975) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $6.52 | $2.12 | -$4.4 | 36% 14106-25213 (39319) |
Parz1vaIInvested
$3,152.63
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$39.81
Record
72%
3455-1322 (4777)
Invested
$1,056.81
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$34.31
Record
86%
144-24 (168)
Invested
$383.57
Value
$380.16
PnL
+$1.36
Record
89%
4398-538 (4936)
Invested
$153.72
Value
$164.66
PnL
+$9.97
Record
53%
1040-935 (1975)
Invested
$6.52
Value
$2.12
PnL
-$4.4
Record
36%
14106-25213 (39319)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.