Will Cristian Mungiu win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $375 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$375.07
-$0.56
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $117.28 | $117.11 | -$0.18 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $103.38 | $103.22 | -$0.16 | 10% 36-325 (361) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.93 | $74.81 | -$0.11 | 40% 1420-2155 (3575) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $35.03 | $34.98 | -$0.05 | — 2-14 (16) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.93 | -$0.04 | 29% 854-2135 (2989) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.04 | $15.02 | -$0.02 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
LucerysInvested
$117.28
Value
$117.11
PnL
-$0.18
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$103.38
Value
$103.22
PnL
-$0.16
Record
10%
36-325 (361)
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.81
PnL
-$0.11
Record
40%
1420-2155 (3575)
Invested
$35.03
Value
$34.98
PnL
-$0.05
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.93
PnL
-$0.04
Record
29%
854-2135 (2989)
Invested
$15.04
Value
$15.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.