Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cory Sandhagen be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$6.96

Combined PnL

-$102.06

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$6

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes11 traders

Total Value$0.96

Total Shares1,925

Combined PnL-$102.09

No — 8%Yes — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.96	$6	+$0.03	49% 8976-9501 (18477)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$0.35	$0.35	-$36.57	51% 3760-3612 (7372)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$9.14	$0.35	-$36.57	61% 16040-10339 (26379)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$5.82	$0.08	-$5.74	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$6.11	$0.06	-$6.05	43% 3222-4252 (7474)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$4.88	$0.05	-$4.83	50% 2489-2443 (4932)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$52.26	$0.03	-$2.72	31% 2671-5963 (8634)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$6.95	$0.02	-$6.42	40% 9836-14980 (24816)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$31.07	$0.01	-$2.54	52% 6361-5985 (12346)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.63	$0.01	-$0.63	41% 2318-3356 (5674)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yes	$49.55	$0.01	+$0.01	33% 6646-13590 (20236)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0	-$0.01	20% 2781-10948 (13729)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

8976-9501 (18477)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$36.57

Record

51%

3760-3612 (7372)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.14

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$36.57

Record

61%

16040-10339 (26379)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.82

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$5.74

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.11

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$6.05

Record

43%

3222-4252 (7474)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.83

Record

50%

2489-2443 (4932)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.26

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.72

Record

31%

2671-5963 (8634)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.95

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.42

Record

40%

9836-14980 (24816)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.07

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.54

Record

52%

6361-5985 (12346)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.63

Record

41%

2318-3356 (5674)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.55

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

33%

6646-13590 (20236)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

PnL

-$0.01

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.