Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 76¢ · $422 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$421.92
$69.09
61.4¢ → 76¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $108.48 | $200.12 | +$52.59 | 32% 4491-9628 (14119) |
ST Stonktrader | Yesavg 68.7¢ | $145.47 | $163 | +$15.42 | 74% 168-59 (227) |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 73.1¢ | $127.14 | $58.8 | +$1.09 | 42% 5278-7228 (12506) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.