Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in October?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $184 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$184.25
-$0.32
99.5¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $74.63 | $74.44 | -$0.19 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.85 | $29.81 | -$0.05 | 28% 826-2133 (2959) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $28.82 | $28.79 | -$0.03 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.88 | $19.87 | -$0.01 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $15.42 | $15.4 | -$0.02 | 36% 173-306 (479) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $13.04 | $13.02 | -$0.02 | 36% 508-898 (1406) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $2.93 | $2.92 | -$0 | 79% 158-41 (199) |
Invested
$74.63
Value
$74.44
PnL
-$0.19
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Invested
$29.85
Value
$29.81
PnL
-$0.05
Record
28%
826-2133 (2959)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$28.82
Value
$28.79
PnL
-$0.03
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$19.88
Value
$19.87
PnL
-$0.01
Record
28%
2422-6146 (8568)
Invested
$15.42
Value
$15.4
PnL
-$0.02
Record
36%
173-306 (479)
Invested
$13.04
Value
$13.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
36%
508-898 (1406)
Invested
$2.93
Value
$2.92
PnL
-$0
Record
79%
158-41 (199)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.