Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in October?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 97¢ · $314 held · ends Nov 11

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$313.53

Combined PnL

$4.44

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 97.2¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$313.39

Total Shares325

Combined PnL+$4.91

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.14

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$0.48

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$82.99	$85.91	+$2.92	39% 1043-1626 (2669)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$70.35	$71.59	+$1.24	10% 25-236 (261)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$38.68	$38.68	+$0	52% 5296-4806 (10102)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$29.75	$30.7	+$0.95	— 8-8 (16)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.4	$29.15	-$0.25	11% 35-270 (305)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$22.06	$22.44	+$0.38	35% 2882-5322 (8204)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$19.34	$19.34	+$0	28% 2422-6146 (8568)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$13.03	$12.74	-$0.29	36% 156-274 (430)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98¢	$2.88	$2.85	-$0.03	79% 158-41 (199)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.59	$0.11	-$0.48	48% 709-765 (1474)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.03	$0.03	+$0.01	16% 10-52 (62)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$82.99

Value

$85.91

PnL

+$2.92

Record

39%

1043-1626 (2669)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$70.35

Value

$71.59

PnL

+$1.24

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.68

Value

$38.68

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5296-4806 (10102)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$29.75

Value

$30.7

PnL

+$0.95

Record

—

8-8 (16)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$29.15

PnL

-$0.25

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$22.06

Value

$22.44

PnL

+$0.38

Record

35%

2882-5322 (8204)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.34

Value

$19.34

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

2422-6146 (8568)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$13.03

Value

$12.74

PnL

-$0.29

Record

36%

156-274 (430)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

79%

158-41 (199)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

709-765 (1474)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

16%

10-52 (62)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.