Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in October?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$2.0K
-$65.59
98.1¢ → 95¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 98.3¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$66.38 | 77% 1408-417 (1825) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $37.96 | $38.4 | +$0.44 | 61% 2756-1755 (4511) |
GR grinder1011<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $25.64 | $26.07 | +$0.44 | 34% 58-113 (171) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $19.28 | $19.2 | -$0.08 | 50% 3181-3141 (6322) |
Invested
$1,966.38
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$66.38
Record
77%
1408-417 (1825)
Invested
$37.96
Value
$38.4
PnL
+$0.44
Record
61%
2756-1755 (4511)
Invested
$25.64
Value
$26.07
PnL
+$0.44
Record
34%
58-113 (171)
Invested
$19.28
Value
$19.2
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
3181-3141 (6322)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.