Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Corbin Carroll win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$2.36
-$88.63
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $25.51 | $0.66 | -$24.93 | 49% 9048-9530 (18578) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $22.8 | $0.59 | -$22.21 | 79% 10611-2762 (13373) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $18.99 | $0.53 | -$18.46 | 60% 7178-4743 (11921) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $18.16 | $0.47 | -$17.69 | 43% 2778-3617 (6395) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.92 | $0.07 | -$2.85 | 37% 685-1150 (1835) |
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.42 | $0.04 | -$1.38 | 54% 113-96 (209) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $55.42 | $0 | -$1.11 | 54% 6080-5238 (11318) |
Invested
$25.51
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$24.93
Record
49%
9048-9530 (18578)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$22.8
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$22.21
Record
79%
10611-2762 (13373)
Invested
$18.99
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$18.46
Record
60%
7178-4743 (11921)
Invested
$18.16
Value
$0.47
PnL
-$17.69
Record
43%
2778-3617 (6395)
Invested
$2.92
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$2.85
Record
37%
685-1150 (1835)
Invested
$1.42
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$1.38
Record
54%
113-96 (209)
Invested
$55.42
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.11
Record
54%
6080-5238 (11318)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.