Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $248 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$247.59

Combined PnL

-$12.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$177.7

Total Shares180

Combined PnL+$16.69

Yes4 traders

Total Value$69.89

Total Shares4,509

Combined PnL-$29.52

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

127h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$75.87	$74.6	+$16.72	58% 21580-15650 (37230)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$63.71	$63.74	+$0.02	53% 24137-21182 (45319)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$94.61	$60.61	-$31.73	45% 3024-3718 (6742)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$39.43	$39.37	-$0.06	52% 31219-29135 (60354)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.24	$7.75	+$2.51	38% 681-1099 (1780)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.72	$1.01	-$0.21	27% 653-1750 (2403)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yes	$0.52	$0.52	-$0.1	37% 3312-5702 (9014)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$75.87

Value

$74.6

PnL

+$16.72

Record

58%

21580-15650 (37230)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$63.71

Value

$63.74

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

24137-21182 (45319)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.61

Value

$60.61

PnL

-$31.73

Record

45%

3024-3718 (6742)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$39.43

Value

$39.37

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

31219-29135 (60354)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$2.51

Record

38%

681-1099 (1780)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.21

Record

27%

653-1750 (2403)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

3312-5702 (9014)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

127h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3957.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

4057.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.