Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$1.4K
$-3.2K
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$3.77 | 40% 1583-2384 (3967) |
AN anciano | Noavg 76¢ | $29.59 | $209.2 | +$59.08 | 55% 1470-1226 (2696) |
AN anoin123CTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $3.4K | $118.95 | $-3.3K | 44% 540-681 (1221) |
AU auros2<$100 | No | $59.15 | $59.15 | +$13.56 | — 6-1 (7) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.