Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Conner Leavitt win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.26

Combined PnL

-$16.91

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$0.26

Total Shares519

Combined PnL-$16.91

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$0.05	$0.05	-$1.7	— 4-0 (4)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$5.66	$0.04	-$5.61	51% 1100-1065 (2165)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$1.44	46% 9379-11135 (20514)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$4.64	$0.04	-$4.6	47% 4058-4608 (8666)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.65	$0.02	-$0.64	23% 1782-6016 (7798)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.11	$0.01	-$0.53	16% 374-1953 (2327)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.2	$0.01	-$0.39	29% 443-1103 (1546)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.39	30% 481-1137 (1618)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.09	$0.01	-$0.39	30% 489-1151 (1640)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.08	$0.01	-$0.39	29% 346-843 (1189)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.09	$0.01	-$0.39	29% 328-805 (1133)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$0.4	$0	-$0.4	26% 7290-21071 (28361)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	-$0.03	39% 5748-9160 (14908)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.7

Record

—

4-0 (4)

CosmicCedarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.66

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$5.61

Record

51%

1100-1065 (2165)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.44

Record

46%

9379-11135 (20514)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.64

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.6

Record

47%

4058-4608 (8666)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.64

Record

23%

1782-6016 (7798)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.53

Record

16%

374-1953 (2327)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

29%

443-1103 (1546)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

30%

481-1137 (1618)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

30%

489-1151 (1640)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

29%

346-843 (1189)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

29%

328-805 (1133)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

26%

7290-21071 (28361)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

39%

5748-9160 (14908)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.