Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Conner Leavitt win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.22

Combined PnL

-$11.92

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$0.22

Total Shares433

Combined PnL-$11.92

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$0.05	$0.05	-$1.7	— 4-0 (4)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$5.66	$0.04	-$5.61	51% 1100-1065 (2165)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$1.44	46% 9400-11138 (20538)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.26	$0.02	-$0.64	23% 1791-6025 (7816)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.11	$0.01	-$0.53	16% 383-1960 (2343)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.2	$0.01	-$0.39	30% 463-1103 (1566)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.39	30% 497-1138 (1635)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.09	$0.01	-$0.39	31% 507-1151 (1658)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.4	$0.01	-$0.39	30% 364-853 (1217)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.4	$0.01	-$0.39	30% 342-806 (1148)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	-$0.03	39% 5764-9161 (14925)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.7

Record

—

4-0 (4)

CosmicCedarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.66

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$5.61

Record

51%

1100-1065 (2165)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.44

Record

46%

9400-11138 (20538)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.64

Record

23%

1791-6025 (7816)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.53

Record

16%

383-1960 (2343)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

30%

463-1103 (1566)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

30%

497-1138 (1635)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

31%

507-1151 (1658)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

30%

364-853 (1217)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

30%

342-806 (1148)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

39%

5764-9161 (14925)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.