Will Como win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 20, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Jun 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$20.53

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 97.9¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$863.68

Total Shares880

Combined PnL-$10.46

Yes7 traders

Total Value$479.09

Total Shares23,315

Combined PnL-$10.07

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

234h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.1¢	$660.13	$411.39	-$4.83	53% 23051-20286 (43337)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$197.61	$332.18	+$134.57	41% 166-240 (406)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.6¢	$214.14	$210.27	-$3.87	49% 8958-9484 (18442)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99¢	$186.05	$182.83	-$1.31	77% 12489-3829 (16318)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR	Yesavg 2¢	$382.97	$84.52	-$147.45	12% 23-169 (192)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$40.94	$47.71	+$6.77	45% 2910-3559 (6469)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$29.88	$29.85	-$0.03	56% 18368-14297 (32665)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$29.77	$29.34	-$0.43	51% 3741-3595 (7336)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$423.22	$8.68	-$0.84	38% 3108-4974 (8082)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$7.06	$4.1	-$2.96	44% 2227-2867 (5094)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$50.05	$1.03	-$0.02	36% 2032-3650 (5682)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.01	$0.87	-$0.14	42% 1530-2142 (3672)

cigarettes

Invested

$660.13

Value

$411.39

PnL

-$4.83

Record

53%

23051-20286 (43337)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$197.61

Value

$332.18

PnL

+$134.57

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

smallreceipt

Invested

$214.14

Value

$210.27

PnL

-$3.87

Record

49%

8958-9484 (18442)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$186.05

Value

$182.83

PnL

-$1.31

Record

77%

12489-3829 (16318)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR

Yes

Invested

$382.97

Value

$84.52

PnL

-$147.45

Record

12%

23-169 (192)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.94

Value

$47.71

PnL

+$6.77

Record

45%

2910-3559 (6469)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

56%

18368-14297 (32665)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.77

Value

$29.34

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

3741-3595 (7336)

GingerMcKennaCTR

Yes

Invested

$423.22

Value

$8.68

PnL

-$0.84

Record

38%

3108-4974 (8082)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.06

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$2.96

Record

44%

2227-2867 (5094)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.05

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

36%

2032-3650 (5682)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$0.14

Record

42%

1530-2142 (3672)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

234h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.