Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 88¢ · $940 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$939.97

Combined PnL

$22.8

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 87.8¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$909.85

Total Shares1,018

Combined PnL+$32.36

Yes3 traders

Total Value$30.12

Total Shares478

Combined PnL-$9.56

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Noavg 79.6¢	$472.86	$553.91	+$81.05	73% 1113-422 (1535)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802	Noavg 92.9¢	$278.7	$238.82	-$39.88	—
HoshinoAI	Noavg 86.8¢	$173.79	$46.35	-$14.48	42% 13-18 (31)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$38.24	$43.93	+$5.68	32% 2873-6242 (9115)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$20.28	$20	-$0.28	9% 3-30 (33)
SteveTheFishCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$23.12	$19.89	-$3.23	—
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$23.81	$9.08	-$3.86	66% 4143-2169 (6312)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$4.43	$4.22	-$0.21	3% 1-29 (30)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$2.15	$2.63	+$0.48	26% 1244-3525 (4769)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.1¢	$3.62	$1.16	-$2.46	45% 13-16 (29)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$472.86

Value

$553.91

PnL

+$81.05

Record

73%

1113-422 (1535)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802

Invested

$278.7

Value

$238.82

PnL

-$39.88

Record

—

HoshinoAI

Invested

$173.79

Value

$46.35

PnL

-$14.48

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$38.24

Value

$43.93

PnL

+$5.68

Record

32%

2873-6242 (9115)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$20.28

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.28

Record

3-30 (33)

SteveTheFishCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.12

Value

$19.89

PnL

-$3.23

Record

—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.81

Value

$9.08

PnL

-$3.86

Record

66%

4143-2169 (6312)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.22

PnL

-$0.21

Record

1-29 (30)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.48

Record

26%

1244-3525 (4769)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.62

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$2.46

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.2%

87.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.