Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028?

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 30¢ · $22 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$22.33

Combined PnL

-$14.32

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$22.33

Total Shares74

Combined PnL-$14.32

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$15.79	$16.33	-$10.62	— 0-10 (10)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$5.6	$6	-$3.7	— 1-9 (10)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.79

Value

$16.33

PnL

-$10.62

Record

—

0-10 (10)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.6

Value

PnL

-$3.7

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.