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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $186 held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$186.08
-$1.04
99.8¢ → 98.2¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $107.56 | $105.92 | -$1.63 | 16% 63-330 (393) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $43.78 | $43.12 | -$0.66 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.65 | -$0.29 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.61 | $15.39 | -$0.23 | 29% 881-2138 (3019) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.23 | $2 | +$1.77 | 12% 20-153 (173) |
Invested
$107.56
Value
$105.92
PnL
-$1.63
Record
16%
63-330 (393)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$43.78
Value
$43.12
PnL
-$0.66
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.65
PnL
-$0.29
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Invested
$15.61
Value
$15.39
PnL
-$0.23
Record
29%
881-2138 (3019)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.23
Value
$2
PnL
+$1.77
Record
12%
20-153 (173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.