Will Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 98¢ · $238 held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$238.37

Combined PnL

-$64.09

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$123.06

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$0.94

Yes7 traders

Total Value$115.31

Total Shares7,439

Combined PnL-$65.03

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

130h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
probability	Noavg 97.7¢	$125	$123.06	+$0.94	— 1-11 (12)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$88.23	$36.57	-$51.66	— 3-5 (8)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$8.3	$32.15	+$23.85	—
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$37.84	$30.63	-$7.21	—
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$14.35	$7.12	-$7.23	— 0-3 (3)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$15.75	$4.65	-$11.1	— 0-2 (2)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$9.99	$2.63	-$7.36	— 4-3 (7)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$5.88	$1.55	-$4.33	0% 0-35 (35)

probability

Invested

$125

Value

$123.06

PnL

+$0.94

Record

—

1-11 (12)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.23

Value

$36.57

PnL

-$51.66

Record

—

3-5 (8)

MenacingTurtleCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.3

Value

$32.15

PnL

+$23.85

Record

—

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.84

Value

$30.63

PnL

-$7.21

Record

—

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.35

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$7.23

Record

—

0-3 (3)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.75

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$11.1

Record

—

0-2 (2)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.99

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$7.36

Record

—

4-3 (7)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.88

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$4.33

Record

0-35 (35)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

130h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.