Will Clavicular be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $39K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$39.5K
$46.74
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CoinTrick | Noavg 99.9¢ | $24.8K | $24.8K | +$21.24 | 98% 3055-75 (3130) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 99.7¢ | $14.4K | $14.4K | +$23.81 | 96% 600-23 (623) |
 fireponbabylon | Noavg 97.4¢ | $161.16 | $162.34 | +$1.18 | 44% 365-464 (829) |
 -Dominus-<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $88.88 | $89.39 | +$0.51 | 69% 333-153 (486) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.