Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 100¢ · $107 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 14%

Total Value

$107.49

Combined PnL

-$74.84

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$102

Total Shares102

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes6 traders

Total Value$5.49

Total Shares3,351

Combined PnL-$74.87

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

741h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.09	$102	+$0.04	56% 3737-2986 (6723)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.93	$1.87	+$0.47	50% 987-1001 (1988)
paddaaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$40.12	$1.84	-$38.28	56% 839-648 (1487)
QM QMG-CORECTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$22.73	$0.75	-$21.98	77% 1421-420 (1841)
0X 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.34	$0.52	+$0.17	16% 5-27 (32)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$9.32	$0.31	-$9.01	25% 181-542 (723)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$6.45	$0.21	-$6.24	30% 2189-5039 (7228)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$9.09

Value

$102

PnL

+$0.04

Record

56%

3737-2986 (6723)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

987-1001 (1988)

paddaaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.12

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$38.28

Record

56%

839-648 (1487)

QMG-CORECTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.73

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$21.98

Record

77%

1421-420 (1841)

0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0.17

Record

16%

5-27 (32)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.32

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$9.01

Record

25%

181-542 (723)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.45

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$6.24

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

741h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.