Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on November 16, 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$109.18

Combined PnL

-$55.06

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$108.84

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.33

Total Shares222

Combined PnL-$55.09

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.86	$59.88	+$0.02	28% 971-2559 (3530)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$23.95	$23.95	-$0	40% 1496-2232 (3728)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.96	+$0	46% 133-155 (288)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.03	$5.05	+$0.02	19% 114-491 (605)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$34.26	$0.21	-$34.05	43% 2584-3425 (6009)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$10.25	$0.06	-$10.19	12% 9-67 (76)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$6.02	$0.04	-$5.99	26% 378-1084 (1462)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$4.89	$0.03	-$4.86	46% 4863-5671 (10534)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$59.86

Value

$59.88

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

971-2559 (3530)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$23.95

Value

$23.95

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

1496-2232 (3728)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

133-155 (288)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

19%

114-491 (605)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.26

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$34.05

Record

43%

2584-3425 (6009)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.25

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.19

Record

12%

9-67 (76)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.02

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$5.99

Record

26%

378-1084 (1462)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.89

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.86

Record

46%

4863-5671 (10534)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.