Will Claude go down 8-10 times in November 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 97¢ · $148 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$148.08
$3.65
93.5¢ → 96.8¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $51.61 | $54.22 | +$2.61 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $29.24 | $29.4 | +$0.16 | — 2-14 (16) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $21.26 | $22.4 | +$1.14 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $18.88 | $20.53 | +$1.65 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $9 | $9.8 | +$0.8 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $7.58 | $7.74 | +$0.16 | 39% 1286-2003 (3289) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $10.62 | $3.98 | -$2.88 | 49% 86-88 (174) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$51.61
Value
$54.22
PnL
+$2.61
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Invested
$29.24
Value
$29.4
PnL
+$0.16
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$21.26
Value
$22.4
PnL
+$1.14
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$18.88
Value
$20.53
PnL
+$1.65
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$9
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
Invested
$7.58
Value
$7.74
PnL
+$0.16
Record
39%
1286-2003 (3289)
Invested
$10.62
Value
$3.98
PnL
-$2.88
Record
49%
86-88 (174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.