Will Claude go down 14+ times in November 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $183 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$182.5
-$0.25
99.8¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 38%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $41.15 | $41.15 | +$0 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.94 | +$0 | 26% 858-2483 (3341) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.94 | +$0 | — 2-14 (16) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.34 | $29.34 | +$0 | 27% 499-1349 (1848) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $20.96 | $20.96 | +$0 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.93 | $20.91 | -$0.02 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.98 | -$0.01 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.51 | $0.29 | -$0.22 | 49% 86-88 (174) |
Invested
$41.15
Value
$41.15
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
858-2483 (3341)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$29.34
Value
$29.34
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
499-1349 (1848)
Invested
$20.96
Value
$20.96
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$20.93
Value
$20.91
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.29
PnL
-$0.22
Record
49%
86-88 (174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.