Will Claude go down 11-13 times in November 2026?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $186 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$186.43

Combined PnL

-$1.58

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$186.05

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$1.29

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.38

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$0.29

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$41.15	$40.86	-$0.29	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.73	-$0.21	24% 75-243 (318)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.73	-$0.21	— 2-14 (16)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.34	$29.14	-$0.21	27% 499-1349 (1848)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$20.96	$20.81	-$0.15	28% 522-1370 (1892)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$20.92	$20.76	-$0.15	37% 3176-5375 (8551)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.91	-$0.07	30% 2683-6207 (8890)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$5.11	$5.11	+$0	5% 1-20 (21)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.68	$0.38	-$0.29	49% 86-88 (174)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$41.15

Value

$40.86

PnL

-$0.29

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.73

PnL

-$0.21

Record

24%

75-243 (318)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.73

PnL

-$0.21

Record

—

2-14 (16)

klli27<$100

Invested

$29.34

Value

$29.14

PnL

-$0.21

Record

27%

499-1349 (1848)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$20.96

Value

$20.81

PnL

-$0.15

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$20.92

Value

$20.76

PnL

-$0.15

Record

37%

3176-5375 (8551)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.91

PnL

-$0.07

Record

30%

2683-6207 (8890)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0

Record

1-20 (21)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.29

Record

49%

86-88 (174)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.