Will Clarence Thomas be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $225 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$225.2
-$0.55
99.9¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $76.53 | $76.31 | -$0.22 | 44% 1080-1379 (2459) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $39.82 | -$0.14 | 53% 5469-4897 (10366) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.87 | -$0.1 | 27% 909-2509 (3418) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.87 | -$0.1 | 10% 38-326 (364) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $20.94 | $20.98 | +$0.04 | 78% 263-73 (336) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $14.06 | $14.01 | -$0.05 | 38% 287-478 (765) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $13.26 | $13.29 | +$0.03 | 43% 268-351 (619) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.07 | $1.07 | +$0 | 39% 603-947 (1550) |
Invested
$76.53
Value
$76.31
PnL
-$0.22
Record
44%
1080-1379 (2459)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$39.82
PnL
-$0.14
Record
53%
5469-4897 (10366)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.87
PnL
-$0.1
Record
27%
909-2509 (3418)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.87
PnL
-$0.1
Record
10%
38-326 (364)
Invested
$20.94
Value
$20.98
PnL
+$0.04
Record
78%
263-73 (336)
Invested
$14.06
Value
$14.01
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
287-478 (765)
Invested
$13.26
Value
$13.29
PnL
+$0.03
Record
43%
268-351 (619)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$1.07
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
603-947 (1550)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
alex20011
No — $76.31
cigarettes
No — $39.82
northdrawer
No — $29.87
god83743894
No — $29.87
luciebot
No — $20.98
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $14.01
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $13.29
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $1.07