Will Chuck Schumer be the next US Senate Minority Leader?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 3, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jan 3, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$12.3

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,065

Combined PnL+$1

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.6

Total Shares734

Combined PnL-$13.3

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-61 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardbulletin	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$1	70% 373-160 (533)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$66.43	$66.43	+$0	47% 544-625 (1169)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$8.14	$0.68	-$7.43	30% 2961-6982 (9943)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$67.81	$0.62	-$2.3	58% 481-347 (828)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.54	$0.14	-$1.4	19% 816-3584 (4400)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.68	$0.06	-$0.62	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.68	$0.06	-$0.62	39% 1064-1647 (2711)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$30.46	$0.05	-$0.93	40% 1475-2199 (3674)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$1,996.92

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1

Record

70%

373-160 (533)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$66.43

Value

$66.43

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.14

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$7.43

Record

30%

2961-6982 (9943)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.81

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$2.3

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$1.4

Record

19%

816-3584 (4400)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.62

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.62

Record

39%

1064-1647 (2711)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.46

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.93

Record

40%

1475-2199 (3674)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-61 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.