Will Christian Anderson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $236 held · ends May 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, May 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$235.52

Combined PnL

-$21.53

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 99.9¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$231.68

Total Shares232

Combined PnL+$12.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.84

Total Shares1,535

Combined PnL-$33.68

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

77h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 91.7¢	$112.2	$112.2	+$12.06	47% 3793-4263 (8056)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.84	$49.55	+$0.01	72% 13767-5236 (19003)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.8¢	$134.1	$39.96	+$0.06	54% 12396-10610 (23006)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$42.58	$29.97	+$0.02	43% 8735-11393 (20128)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$30.63	$2.5	-$28.13	31% 738-1610 (2348)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yes	$0.78	$0.78	-$3.31	54% 1458-1224 (2682)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.65	$0.35	-$1.52	27% 2507-6862 (9369)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.93	$0.21	-$0.72	40% 256-391 (647)

haveagoodday

Invested

$112.2

Value

$112.2

PnL

+$12.06

Record

47%

3793-4263 (8056)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$59.84

Value

$49.55

PnL

+$0.01

Record

72%

13767-5236 (19003)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$134.1

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

12396-10610 (23006)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$42.58

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

43%

8735-11393 (20128)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.63

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$28.13

Record

31%

738-1610 (2348)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$3.31

Record

54%

1458-1224 (2682)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$1.52

Record

27%

2507-6862 (9369)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.72

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

77h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.