Will Chovy win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 77¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 29

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$8.86

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 76.5¢

-9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,302

Combined PnL-$220.55

Yes3 traders

Total Value$31.39

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$229.41

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Anjun	Noavg 85.5¢	$3.1K	$2.5K	-$199.21	55% 5255-4341 (9596)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$1.8K	$700.02	-$27.66	13% 603-4221 (4824)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.2¢	$568.49	$525.02	-$382.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.3¢	$141.95	$175	+$354.96
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$910	$374.58	+$259.36	45% 3029-3730 (6759)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.8¢	$221	$210.21	-$194.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.3¢	$54.57	$164.37	+$453.71
Haradwaith	Noavg 76.8¢	$511.36	$372.68	+$2.79	40% 6684-10176 (16860)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 83.8¢	$285.11	$257.71	-$27.4	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 76¢	$51.66	$52	+$0.34	27% 659-1763 (2422)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$69.55	$51.45	-$0.97	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 75¢	$49.07	$49	+$4.1	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$87.02	$37.5	-$0.25	22% 1839-6343 (8182)
WA WarriorHCTR	Yesavg 18.4¢	$158.68	$26.36	+$223.69	16% 1392-7374 (8766)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 73¢	$13.45	$13.91	+$0.46	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 80¢	$5.26	$4.94	-$0.33	37% 3313-5705 (9018)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2.79	$3.49	+$0.7	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$2.76	$2.68	-$0.08	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$141.48	$1.55	+$5.02	51% 327-314 (641)

Anjun

Invested

$3,053.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$199.21

Record

55%

5255-4341 (9596)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$1,824.96

Value

$700.02

PnL

-$27.66

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

Both legs:

No$568.4981.2¢-$382.62

Yes$141.9520.3¢+$354.96

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Invested

$910

Value

$374.58

PnL

+$259.36

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

Both legs:

No$22178.8¢-$194.35

Yes$54.578.3¢+$453.71

Haradwaith

Invested

$511.36

Value

$372.68

PnL

+$2.79

Record

40%

6684-10176 (16860)

ghorrock

Invested

$285.11

Value

$257.71

PnL

-$27.4

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$51.66

Value

$52

PnL

+$0.34

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$69.55

Value

$51.45

PnL

-$0.97

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$49.07

Value

$49

PnL

+$4.1

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$87.02

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

22%

1839-6343 (8182)

WarriorHCTR

Yes

Invested

$158.68

Value

$26.36

PnL

+$223.69

Record

16%

1392-7374 (8766)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$13.45

Value

$13.91

PnL

+$0.46

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$5.26

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.33

Record

37%

3313-5705 (9018)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.79

Value

$3.49

PnL

+$0.7

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.08

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Yes

Invested

$141.48

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$5.02

Record

51%

327-314 (641)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.