Will Chou Ni-an win the next Penghu County Magistrate election?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $469 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$469.37
$3.9
99.5¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $177.28 | $176.58 | -$0.71 | 84% 43-8 (51) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.5¢ | $109.3 | $109.01 | -$0.29 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $83.58 | $83.33 | -$0.25 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $74.51 | $70.99 | -$3.52 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.84 | -$0.06 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.9 | $9.63 | +$8.73 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
Invested
$177.28
Value
$176.58
PnL
-$0.71
Record
84%
43-8 (51)
balthazarInvested
$109.3
Value
$109.01
PnL
-$0.29
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$83.58
Value
$83.33
PnL
-$0.25
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$74.51
Value
$70.99
PnL
-$3.52
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.84
PnL
-$0.06
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
$9.63
PnL
+$8.73
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.