Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 14?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$1.2K
$22.11
91.1¢ → 98¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 93¢ | $686.34 | $719.18 | +$29.52 | 76% 590-189 (779) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 88.3¢ | $491.19 | $481.62 | -$4.21 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 4.6¢ | $2.17 | $1.2 | -$0.98 | 50% 7813-7864 (15677) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $2.75 | $0.89 | -$1.86 | 23% 178-602 (780) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.5¢ | $0.64 | $0.64 | +$0 | 60% 7180-4743 (11923) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $0.75 | $0.38 | -$0.37 | 37% 1395-2381 (3776) |
KimchiCapitalInvested
$686.34
Value
$719.18
PnL
+$29.52
Record
76%
590-189 (779)
IstarothInvested
$491.19
Value
$481.62
PnL
-$4.21
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
Invested
$2.17
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$0.98
Record
50%
7813-7864 (15677)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$0.89
PnL
-$1.86
Record
23%
178-602 (780)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.64
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
7180-4743 (11923)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$0.37
Record
37%
1395-2381 (3776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.