Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $314 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$314.36
-$50.74
53.4¢ → 66¢
+24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 56¢ | $195.95 | $161 | -$34.95 | 13% 50-327 (377) |
SH shovelingdigging | Noavg 56¢ | $118.41 | $97.27 | -$21.15 | — 1-6 (7) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $32.5 | $41.56 | +$9.06 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $9.2 | -$5.8 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $3.25 | $5.34 | +$2.09 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
Invested
$195.95
Value
$161
PnL
-$34.95
Record
13%
50-327 (377)
Invested
$118.41
Value
$97.27
PnL
-$21.15
Record
—
1-6 (7)
balthazar<$100Invested
$32.5
Value
$41.56
PnL
+$9.06
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$15
Value
$9.2
PnL
-$5.8
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$3.25
Value
$5.34
PnL
+$2.09
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.