Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Chiu Yi-ying win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Nov 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.58

Combined PnL

-$92.63

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.58

Total Shares3,159

Combined PnL-$92.63

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$24.85	$0.43	-$24.42	79% 10607-2754 (13361)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$9	$0.41	-$24.13	49% 9047-9526 (18573)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$19.15	$0.32	-$18.84	56% 3736-2985 (6721)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$11.35	$0.19	-$11.16	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$5.58	$0.09	-$5.49	49% 4990-5214 (10204)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$4.61	$0.08	-$4.53	55% 5874-4767 (10641)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$2.54	$0.04	-$2.5	51% 218-210 (428)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.58	$0.03	-$1.56	38% 187-299 (486)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.85

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$24.42

Record

79%

10607-2754 (13361)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$24.13

Record

49%

9047-9526 (18573)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.15

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$18.84

Record

56%

3736-2985 (6721)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.35

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$11.16

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.58

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$5.49

Record

49%

4990-5214 (10204)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.61

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$4.53

Record

55%

5874-4767 (10641)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.54

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

218-210 (428)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.58

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.56

Record

38%

187-299 (486)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.